PowerSimm Editor 4.1

We are excited to announce the release of PowerSimm Editor 4.1. This new release of PowerSimm is a major upgrade from previous versions, involving significant improvements on the user interface functionality, menu contents and layouts, new validation rules for notifying users of errant inputs or configuration, and remediation of existing bugs. This new UI makes substantive strides to improve the software usability and error trapping of problematic data or configurations. PowerSimm 4.1 also incorporates, for the first time, a user interface for Credit Manager, our enhanced analysis tool for credit exposure.

A lot of valuable feedback from client users and our analysts went into the development of this new release. Our main goal was to provide users a more integrated and intuitive editing/execution environment. Diligent validation and QA testing were performed on this new release by experienced IT and Services analysts to ensure error-free functionality of various components.

Major highlights from the new version of PowerSimm™ are given below. More detailed lists of enhancements, new validation rules, and bug fixes are provided in Appendices 1 through 3 at the end.

Updated Look with a New Menu System – The main editor now features a leaner UI theme inspired by Windows 8 Metro where icons for the most commonly used editors are tiled in meaningful groupings. The menu system of PowerSimm™ has been significantly changed with this release. All previous menu functionality is still present, but has been organized in a more intuitive form.

1

Tabbed Windows – In a form similar to web browsers but placed at the bottom of the frame, the newly-featured windows tabs allow the user to focus on, organize, and close work windows with more ease.

2

Backstage Menu – Also new in this version is what is termed a “backstage” menu section, accessible by clicking on the gear icon in the upper left corner of the main editor. The backstage menu hosts the configuration and administrative functions of the main editor.

3

Completely Rebuilt Generation Editor – The generation editor was rebuilt to improve its usability by grouping the types of configuration data into several screens: Resource Variables, Scheduled Outages, and Historical Input. Additional features include an added end date filter, a more accessible flat view toggle, and additional validation rules, including new checks of heat rate, startup/shut down, and outage data.

4

Many New Validation Rules – PowerSimm™ Editor version 4.1 adds many new input data validation checks to help prevent configuration errors in new or updated data. New and updated validation rules for the Generation Editor, Instrument Editor, Forward Curve Editor, and many more, improve the reliability of configurations and data. This includes more checks on generator configuration, trade details, load and pricing data, to name a few. Also, the new Report Manager has improved capability of preventing data- and configuration-related run failures. Building on the input data error checking process in version 4.0, the “Check Data” link allows users to check if their changes (additions or updates) have any issues before submitting the changes to the database.

5

User Interface Integration for Credit Manager – PowerSimm™ now features a user interface for Credit Manager, a credit risk analysis tool for collateral, exposure, and simulated potential future exposure across multiple departments.

Upgrading to PowerSimm™ 4.1 – This new version of PowerSimm™ will be available for installation on ATLAS. For all features to work, a database update is required. Please meet with your Ascend project manager for creating an update plan to review the new editor and develop a deployment testing schedule.

Appendix 1 – Enhancements

  • Credit UI
  • Using ribbon menus with new menu layout
  • Updated icons
  • Tabbed MDI windows
  • Metro-style facelift to main form
  • Added speed-dial
  • Moved book indicator to status bar
  • Permissions for study creation/deletion added
  • Altered the report manager study list logic to exclude studies whose types do not have a showflag=1 condition
  • Removed hiding the variable editor if there is an issue getting the data. The variable editor will open and display an exception instead.
  • Made the following changes to the User Management screen –
    • User List filtered to show only OPS users
    • Ability to edit the user – role mapping
    • Replaced the OPS username by Windows friendly name in the User List in the UI
  • Ability to scroll and drag the tree nodes in Portfolio Editor
  • Replaced Portfoliomanagement trigger with procedure to avoid missing column errors
  • Added filter to Market price model, basis, wind, spot and Load editor to filter moduleprocess
  • Added default variable functionality to startpowersimmstudy
  • Added new sensitivity job tables and their trigger logic
  • Added logic to automatically update the calculation order in case of missing values
  • Jobidtable logging records application modifying the table
  • Log machine running cost in the jobrunnerspectable_log
  • Locations all default to 1 (world) in items
  • Added and updated validation rules for:
    • Generation Editor
    • Instrument Editor
    • Forward Curve Editor
    • Main Model Editor
    • Renewables Editor
    • Load Editor
    • Basis Editor
    • Gas Storage Editor
  • AscendHelp table updated and consolidated to POWERMAN
  • Report manager has new validation rule selection capability
  • Report Manager does not show CD studies in study lists
  • ScheduleStudyToRun updated to include OPS parameters
  • Spot Price Editor updated to be a “filter form” similar to load, wind, etc.
  • Default time step of 4 set in Report Manager
  • Job Error triggers consolidated and updated
  • Portfolio Links now copy with portfolios when copied
  • Study name duplicates prevented
  • Instrument dates adjusted for hour ending. Dates entered in as dates (no times) are given a 1 AM time.
  • Generation Editor rebuilt
  • JOB_SENSITIVITYDATETABLE created and used
  • Report Manager variable search is no longer case sensitive
  • Basis editor date filter logic update
  • Item name added to DSM dropdown in gen editor
  • Archived variables filtered from variable editor
  • Process flow drop-downs in various UIs filtered for context
  • Deleted forward prices indicated in model editor
  • Grids given export to excel function
  • Sensitivity refresh button added to Report Manager
  • Label changes in Generation Editor
  • Calculation Order auto-populated in a better way from the variable editor

Appendix 2 – New Validation Checks

  • Generation Editor
    • Unit Type not null
    • Non-negative times and costs
    • Non-negative Ramp-up/Ramp-down rate
    • Non-negative MMBTUs
    • Non-negative emissions
    • 0 <= Must Run
    • Min <= Max Gen
    • All three historical levels fields filled out (or none)
    • Heat rate Gen’s are monotonically increasing
    • Scheduled Outages: Start/End/% – all or none
    • Set of Fuel Types must equal set of fuel types in HR tab
    • Linked Res.: State must be filled if Unit is filled in
    • Fuel Cost Multiplier must be > 0
  • Instrument Editor
    • Commodity needs to be filled out
    • Instrument Type required
    • Peak Period needs to be filled out
    • one out of the 6 PRICE columns should be filled out for each record
    • Warn on missing Quantity and/or Quantity type
    • Transaction date cannot be null
  • Forward Curve Editor
    • Must have commodity filled out
    • Multiple Commodity/Peak Period (PP) pairs are not allowed within a given item
    • Use CD is checked, market name must be filled out
    • If Use Adjustments is checked, make sure there are adjustments!  (NOT USED!!! HIDE Adjustments tab and checkbox)
    • If one column is filled out, then they all need to be (less Update Date)
    • PP must match the parent
  • Main Model Editor
    • Description, Curve Type, Process Flow, Source & Weight Schema must all be filled out.
    • Description should be unique (database change)
    • Must be filled out: System Load, Gas %, Electric % (6 columns)
  • Renewables Editor
    • Expected Peak > Capacity –> Error
    • TimeIntervalInHours * ExpectedPeakGen < ExpectedEnergy –> Error
    • StartDate>EndDate –> Error
    • Gaps –> Warning
    • Overlaps –> Warning
  • Load Editor
    • Data type should be set (default to Energy)
    • Load needs a value
    • For a load, if forecasts are filled out, but no data, warn regarding setting the proper process flow.
    • Total installed Cap = Sum of other cap
    • Expected Peak Demand*[Hours in (End Date – Start Date)] > Expected Energy
    • Of use column checked then fill out other columns
    • Run orders exclusive
    • Check if more than one record per load => Run order filled out
  • Basis Editor
    • Check for overlapping date ranges in the scaling data
    • Check for date gaps in the scaling data
  • Gas Storage Editor
    • Check for overlap in Capacity date ranges
    • Check for Utilization Min < Max
  • Report Manager
    • Warn on previous study resubmission

Appendix 3 – Bug Fixes

  • Limited number of jobs shown in Study Viewer to 10,000 to prevent memory errors.
  • Load, Hydro, Wind, FC editors, ST price, Weather handle database errors upon save.
  • Fixed: Instrument Editor throws an error when there are zero instrument items
  • Modified Ascendhelp table entries to point to latest value
  • Modified AALOOKUPIDTABLE primary key from composite to single key, added foreign keys
  • Added unique key to counterpartyratings table
  • Fixed language errors in jobidtable triggers, made it schema independent and combined them into a single trigger
  • Modified basis editor to point to newly created view to show archived forwardcurve values correctly
  • Double-click of some item types (hydro, wind, FC, load) in portfolio editor opens form with item in focus
  • User Management error when closing fixed
  • Null active flags in instruments set to 0
  • “copy” concatenation added for long item names
  • Various credit database corrections (missing FKs and PKs)
  • Extra line after paste issue fixed
  • Credit date interval issue in Report Manager fixed

An Evaluation of Customer-Optimized Distributed Generation in New England Utility and Real-Time Markets

The full worth of distributed generation systems must be measured not only by the impact on the customer, but also by DG’s impact on the grid and surrounding market participants.  A case study comparing customer incentives created by utility rates with the real-time prices market in New England provides a new model to quantify the value of customer peak shaving with distributed generation technologies.  Read more from Ray C. Duthu, our Senior Energy Analyst/Consultant at Ascend Analytics.

Click here to read more

Evaluation of Existing Customer-owned, On-site Distributed Generation Business Models

This article presents an economic model that studies customer-owned and operated distributed generation facilities.  Results show that customer-optimized distributed generation facilities create quantifiable losses for distribution and generation and transmission utilities, and that further work will be required in order to create new business models that equitably share in the potential technical and economic benefits of distributed generation.  This article was written in part by our very own Ray C. Duthu, a Senior Energy Analyst/Consultant at Ascend Analytics.
Click to read article

Dr. Gary Dorris, Ascend Analytics’ CEO, presented ‘Unlocking the Latent Value of Flexible Generation and Drive Additional Profits’ at Infocast’s PJM Market Summit 2015.

The presentation focused on the changes in PJM supply fundamentals that are creating new price dynamics and opportunities for flexible generation.  Realizing opportunities to profit from real-time price volatility requires an understanding of price dynamics beyond traditional production costing.  The new paradigm to realize opportunity combines granular asset modeling at 5 minute time-steps with behavioral dynamics of agent response and system fundamentals.  In order to unlock the latent value of generation and drive additional profits, the presentation outlined how to:

  • Understand what are the fundamental drivers creating new price dynamics
  • Visualize price dynamics with geo-spatial plots that identify opportunities
  • Capture additional value through quantifying risk arbitrage opportunities in a hybrid modeling framework
  • Learn what technologies stand to profit the most from these changes.

Ascend Analytics presents to the CEO and Board of a large equipment supplier regarding identifying market opportunities for flexible energy generation

Dr. Gary Dorris (CEO) and Dr. Brock Mosovsky (Sr. Analyst) of Ascend Analytics recently presented to the CEO and board of directors of a multi-billion dollar equipment supplier. The supplier is working closely with their customers to identify the most effective locations for flexible generation and requested Ascend Analytics’ expertise to assist them and their customers in their planning efforts. The supplier was keenly interested in the following points:

  • Translating price volatility in the real-time energy markets into extrinsic value for flexible generation assets
  • Market fundamentals and their impact on prices and volatility including: coal retirements, resource addition, intermittent generation assets (e.g., wind and solar)
  • Persistence value for natural gas generation assets serving a more valuable role in the U.S. supply stack because of increasing amounts of renewables being integrated into the grid. There will always be a risk associated with the lack of control over wind and solar generation; natural gas “peaking” units can fill this gap.

The invitation to present to the board was preceded by the recent release of Ascend Analytics’ report on the Identification of Market Opportunities for Flexible Generation.  The report includes interactive geospatial maps by ISO and highlights market price volatility by LMP for Day-Ahead and Real-Time markets.  Also, included is a detailed analysis of market fundamentals that includes a graphical view of generation supply stack and load, both present and future.  Finally, the report provides an analysis of ISO market rules to support maximizing value from Flexible Generation (inclusive of expected market changes to comply with the new FERC pay for performance regulation mandate).

For more information, please contact Ascend Analytics at (303) 415-1400 at info@ascendanalytics.com

Ascend Helps NorthWestern Monetize Risk In S.D. Resource Plan

Ascend Analytics recently put its PowerSimm Planner software to great success for NorthWestern Energy in its formulation of a 10-year integrated resource plan (IRP) for South Dakota.

PowerSimm Planner helped NorthWestern realize value of adding highly flexible peaking resources to its generation fleet in the SPP and MISO market. Despite these markets having some of the lowest average energy costs in the country, Ascend uncovered a hidden opportunity to realize additional value through internal combustion units (ICU’s).

The ICU’s (Wartsila 50SG) attributes of no start-up costs and small heat rate penalty at minimum load provide substantial economic operating advantages over standard combustion turbines (GE 7FA).  These advantages are realized through capturing the more dynamic price signals of the 5 minute real-time energy market for energy and ancillary services.

“NorthWestern’s decision to enlist Ascend to provide the analytics for its South Dakota integrated resource planning (IRP) further solidifies our position as a leader in electric utility planning sing sophisticated modeling software to help power companies more cost-effectively predict and monetize unique opportunities,” Ascend Analytics President Gary Dorris said.

It marks the company’s second such collaboration with NorthWestern.  Last year, Ascend provided modeling support for NorthWesterns successful bid to acquire $870 million of hydroelectric generation in Montana.

NorthWestern also used PowerSimm to model supply portfolio, regional commodity prices, and energy resource characteristics in South Dakota.  The software introduced “meaningful uncertainty” into future simulations, capturing both the expected costs and risks of its portfolio there.

Traditional resource planning tools lack the sophistication of PowerSimm and fail to capture the extreme volatility and value of more flexible generating resources.  Other software planning models for IRPs fall short recognizing the value of flexible generating assets.

NorthWestern Energy concluded that current peaking options such as GE 7FA are not cost competitive with more flexible internal combustion engines (Wartsila 50 SG).  The additional value of a flexibility added an order of magnitude increase in profits.

Check out Ascend’s contribution to NorthWestern’s South Dakota resource plan via the utility’s website: Chapter 4 — Portfolio Modeling and Analysis

For more information, please contact Ascend Analytics at (303) 415-1400 at info@ascendanalytics.com.

Ascend’s New HyperDrive Flies At Warp Speed With Exceptional Accuracy

Ever suffered from too-much-data-too-little-time syndrome?  Can’t seem to find enough hours in the day to get everything processed?

Ascend Analytics has the perfect solution for what ails you.  And it doesn’t involve copious amounts of coffee and energy drinks or chronic insomnia to work.

Let Ascend’s new HyperDrive burn the midnight oil for you.  Our new offering provides unparalleled performance and accuracy, putting your generation, loads, and hedge instrument data through thousands of iterations without compromising hourly dispatch optimization details.

HyperDrive, uses advanced computational and empirical modeling techniques that can put a 200-unit generation portfolio through its mandatory 2,000 hourly simulations over five years in under two hours, based on current experience.  Like the Tesla S, the speed is “insane” compared to anything out there.

The service fits a series of structural state-space regression models that capture the underlying uncertainty in weather, load, renewables and market prices combined with detailed chronological dispatch of generation.

HyperDrive’s computation efficiency does not compromise model accuracy by realizing results within 1% of detailed hourly results — even for complex combined cycle units in the volatile ERCOT market.

Take HyperDrive for a spin.  For more information, please contact sales at Ascend Analytics at (303) 415-1400 or info@ascendanalytics.com