Join us for a webinar as we review how ISO-NE’s reliable clean energy policy outlook will drive a transition away from fossil fuels. This webinar will be held at 11am MT on May 10th – access it via Zoom here. For those that miss the presentation, a recording will be posted to the Market Intelligence Hub module.
The new ERCOT market forecast from Ascend MI is now available in the Market Intelligence Docs module. The new forecast captures recent market dynamics and a refreshed outlook on the power supply stack, gas curves, and technology prices. Impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act to the effective CAPEX of projects and other incentives are also included in the modeling of the prices in this update. In addition to hub price forecasts and market reports, generic battery revenue forecasts at the hubs are available for download.
The US Development & Finance Forum will be held in Houston, TX from March 20-21st and brings together the renewable energy development and finance communities. Dr. Gary Dorris will moderate the “Origination for the next wave of renewable projects” panel. Attending the Forum? Schedule an in-person with us here:
Join Ascend’s Dr. Gary Dorris and Dr. Brent Nelson for a webinar where we discuss Ascend’s latest market outlooks for NYISO in the midst of marginal ELCC accreditation, elevated gas prices, and IRA tax credits. This webinar will be held at 11am MT on March 29th, 2023 – access it via Zoom here. If you miss the live presentation, a recording will be posted to the Market Intelligence Hub module.
The Solar + Wind Finance & Investment Summit gathers industry experts for deal-making and strategizing opportunities to capitalize on today’s booming renewables market. Attending the Summit? Schedule an in-person meeting with us here:
On an ATC basis, CAISO average system level prices nearly doubled from 2021 (excluding Winter Storm Uri) to $80+/MWh. Prices were particularly elevated in December, when California natural gas price benchmarks breached $50/MMBtu on account of low local storage levels and pipeline constraints.
Both RT and DA volatility (2 hour cumulative top-bottom spreads shown below) increased significantly over 2021 excluding Uri, as higher natural gas prices, a summer heat wave in Aug/Sep, recovering average load trends, and increased renewable deployments all contributed to higher intraday price volatility. The declining RT volatility trend of the past several years witnessed a stark reversal, with a rebound back up to 2018 levels. DA top-bottom spreads, strongly tied to natural gas prices, set new records.
II. Regional Observations
Despite CAISO average hub prices changing significantly from 2021 (excl Uri) to 2022, regional relative price trends were relatively stable. The highest average DA prices (red nodes) were generally in Northern California and along the Northern and Southern Coasts, and lowest average prices (blue nodes) were in the San Joaquin Valley and Desert Southeast.
RT volatility metrics broadly increased across CAISO in 2022 versus 2021 excl Uri. In 2022, the Central Valley and the greater San Diego area remained the relatively higher volatility areas within CAISO, as in 2021 (red nodes). Summer volatility in the Central Valley was once again especially high compared to the rest of California.
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